2010 Outlook
Blame it on the weather if turkeys, especially younger ones, are harder to find this spring. For a third year in a row, the number of poults is low with 1.2 poults per hen counted. The good news is that the poult count was up in much of southern Missouri, but too much rain in the north diminished the rebound there. Several years of difficult weather account for much of the decline.
Cold, wet conditions during nesting and early brood rearing from April through June have limited wild turkey reproduction in four out of the last five years. The 2006 hatch was relatively strong; but cool, wet weather in 2005, an extended freeze around Easter in 2007, record high rainfall in 2008 and a late spring in 2009 resulted in some of the worst years for turkey production on record.
The 2007 Easter freeze also destroyed oak buds and blossoms possibly leading to winter food shortages for turkeys. Acorn studies in 2007 showed the lowest yield by white oaks since 1960, and 2008 research showed record lows for red oak acorns.
Acorns are a very important food for turkeys. The combination of a rough winter and an acorn shortage means some birds will not make it through the winter, or they will enter the nesting season in poor condition.
Whatever the cause, Conservation Department surveys show the state’s wild turkey population has been declining in recent years in some areas. The poult-to-hen ratio was 1.2 in 2005, well below the 10-year average of 1.9. The previous two years’ poult-to-hen ratios were below average, too. The ratio climbed to a relatively strong 1.6 in 2006, but then slid to 1.0 in 2007, 1.1 in 2008 and 1.2 in 2009. With multiple years of low production behind it, the 2010 season will be challenging.
Transitional times
Even factoring out the effects of weather, Missouri’s turkey flock seems to be in transition. During the time when our turkey flock was expanding and population growth was extremely rapid, people often saw turkey flocks numbering in the hundreds. Those days may be gone.
As turkey populations expanded, natural forces such as disease and predation also increased. Many predators prey on turkeys including raccoons, bobcats, coyotes and owls. Although turkeys and their predators eventually will reach a point of equilibrium, Missouri’s turkey population is expected to stabilize at a lower level than the peaks of the 1980s and 1990s.
Instead of seeing more turkeys every year, hunters will see year-to-year variations, mostly related to weather during the nesting season. We could have very good turkey populations in a couple of years in the same areas where their numbers currently are down a lot. Populations may not be as high as they were in the past, but they should be better than they are now.
Quality hunting is goal
Although some look to the Department to reduce season length or bag limits, such changes would not bring more turkeys. Because males and rarely bearded hens are shot during the spring season, spring hunting season isn’t a limiting factor on population growth. Likewise, fall harvest has not contributed to the turkey decline, with fall hunting being mostly self-limiting. Fall harvest lately has been below 10,000 turkeys, a level easily absorbed by Missouri’s fall population of almost 1/2 million turkeys. Unless there’s a widespread, long-term decline in the population, going to more restrictive hunting regulations isn’t going to affect population trends.
Missouri’s turkey regulations are geared to maintain quality turkey hunting, and they are guided by a system created in 1998, the Missouri Wild Turkey Harvest Management Plan. The plan was created by a committee of citizens and biologists assembled by the Conservation Commission, and it was based on turkey population research and the desire by hunters for a quality hunt. Each year the Regulations Committee and the Conservation Commission review recommendations for regulations based on this plan and the current scientific data and survey results. This information includes turkey-harvest age structure, hunting success, hunter satisfaction, and summer brood counts.
Turkey populations remain strong
Although turkeys are down in some parts of the state, Missouri still leads the nation in turkey abundance and harvest. But just like other wildlife, turkey numbers go up and down in response to weather conditions. We have had several rough years recently, but give them two or three years of good weather during the nesting season and our turkeys will bounce back.
